Your Daily Guide

With the midterm election a mere two weeks away, we are now in what the experts call “the Cool Zone,” where real votes are finally being cast — and everyone freaks out because we’ve started prognosticating with incomplete information. Though election analysts tend to agree there’s not much you can understand from early vote data alone, they also agree there’s one exception: Nevada. [New York Times, PollVault]

Or, more specifically, longtime Nevada political reporter Jon Ralston, who’s soothsaying powers have foreseen seismic shifts in election land just before they happened, from former Sen. Harry Reid’s impossible victory in 2010 to a top-of-the-ticket split in 2022. (Full transparency: This writer used to work for Ralston in a past life). [The Nevada Independent]

So why Nevada? It turns out, funny things start to happen when nearly three-quarters of the state’s active voters are in one county. Turnout trends that emerge in Las Vegas during early voting can become increasingly predictive, especially as they relate to what Ralston refers to as the “Clark Firewall” for state Democrats, a historic offset for deep Republican strongholds in the rurals (and until the last 10 years, Washoe County, too). [Nevada Secretary of State, Nevada Independent]

As goes the firewall, so goes the state. This year, early voting began over the weekend with more than 23,000 ballots cast in Clark County alone. Quite a bit! But still only a fraction of the hundreds of thousands that will come in by Election Day. What have they told us? Not much … yet! [The Nevada Independent]

• One interesting nugget: Vote-by-mail numbers (historically favored by Democrats) are increasingly competitive, while in-person voting, traditionally dominated by Republicans, is similarly topsy-turvy. What gives? In part, it may be Democrats dubious not of mail ballots, but of the very mail itself. [Politico]
• Want to drive yourself mad looking at numbers? You’re in luck. The Secretary of State publishes regular data through its “VIVID” dashboard, including data on mail ballots, early in-person voting, and (soon) Election Day in-person turnout. [Nevada Secretary of State]
• That not enough? For those of us still tethered to Twitter/X, John R. Samuelson regularly posts data updates with comparisons to past elections. For those blissfully free of the Elon Musk hellsite, then Ralston’s early voting blog is your best bet. [X, The Nevada Independent]

Elsewhere in election land:

• An investigation into an online forum for former video game composer and Republican congressional candidate Marty O’Donnell found it littered with “racial slurs, minimizations of Nazi Germany and defenses of white nationalist conspiracy theories.” O’Donnell’s campaign said in a statement that he “has zero tolerance for hate” in that forum, and has banned 200 members. [Associated Press]
• Separately, a PAC linked to President Trump canceled almost $1 million in ads boosting O’Donnell just days earlier, as Republican campaign committees still flush with cash have rushed to triage House races across the country. [ABC News]
• But as Election Day nears, expect campaign visits to accelerate until morale improves. House Speaker Mike Johnson is in Vegas today to boost Republican hopefuls, while Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV) is set to stump alongside Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) in North Las Vegas this weekend. [Las Vegas Review-Journal, Facebook]